There are moments when the world turns upside down. The stock market nosedives, a crisis spirals out of control, a natural disaster strikes, or an organisation suddenly finds itself in the middle of a reputational inferno. In these moments, the usual modes of decision-making collapse under their own weight. Bureaucratic deliberation becomes paralysing, traditional hierarchies crumble, and those waiting for clarity find themselves overtaken by events.
The first impulse in chaos is often the worst: leaders freeze, hoping for more data, better conditions, a guiding hand. This instinct to freeze is deeply rooted in our neurobiology; when faced with overwhelming uncertainty, the brain defaults to a survival mechanism akin to ‘fight, flight, or freeze’. In high-stakes situations, freezing can feel safer than acting on incomplete information. However, history shows that inaction is rarely neutral. During the early moments of financial crashes or public health crises, those who delay decision-making in search of clarity often lose the opportunity to shape outcomes, as events rapidly spiral beyond their control. But chaos does not grant time. It demands movement. And yet, reckless action is no better than paralysis. The challenge is to find a way to move—not blindly, but purposefully—through a landscape where the terrain is shifting even as one steps forward.
This is where the OODA Loop—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—comes into play. Born in the realm of aerial dogfights, where pilots had mere seconds to make life-or-death decisions, John Boyd’s OODA Loop is not just a model for combat. It is a framework for thinking in environments where delay means disaster. When combined with Dave Snowden’s insights into chaotic systems, it provides an adaptive approach to navigating crises, not by seeking perfect solutions, but by rapidly cycling through small, decisive interventions that prevent total collapse and create the conditions for stability.
See Through the Storm
The first step—Observe—is deceptively simple. It is also where most failures occur. In chaos, data is either overwhelming or non-existent. One cannot simply sit back and assess, waiting for all the facts to arrive neatly packaged. In 2008, as Lehman Brothers collapsed, financial institutions worldwide were paralysed by the sheer volume of conflicting information. Those who hesitated—waiting for a definitive picture—were swept away. Those who acted prematurely, assuming past models still applied, made catastrophic errors. The key in observation is not to gather everything, but to extract signal from noise.
Dave Snowden offers a useful principle here: act first, then sense. In chaotic environments, small stabilising actions—such as issuing a clear directive, freezing a vulnerable process, or halting speculation—can carve out islands of order. This allows for better observation. During the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, doctors quickly realised they could not rely on standard epidemiological models. Instead, they focused on breaking transmission chains with immediate, localised measures, observing what worked and iterating rapidly.
Unleashing Thought
Once a leader has observed enough to act, they must then Orient—perhaps the most difficult step. Orientation is about making sense of what has been observed, and in chaos, pre-existing frameworks are more hindrance than help. Boyd insisted that the real power of OODA was not speed alone, but agility: the ability to update mental models faster than the competition. Those who insist on seeing the present through the lens of the past will always be overtaken by those who can let go of outdated assumptions.
Consider the initial response to COVID-19. Many governments struggled to adjust their thinking; early measures were based on assumptions that had worked in previous pandemics but were ill-suited to a highly transmissible respiratory virus. South Korea, by contrast, quickly recognised that traditional lockdowns were insufficient. They reoriented their response around rapid testing, digital contact tracing, and real-time adaptation. Those still clinging to outdated models were left behind.
Chaos Requires Imperfect Intuition
The next step—Decide—is where leaders are most prone to hesitation. The rational mind craves certainty, but in chaos, there is none. Waiting for complete information is fatal. A useful heuristic: if you are entirely sure of your decision, you have waited too long.
Boyd understood this well. In air combat, pilots who waited for certainty were dead. A striking example of this principle in action was the experience of German ace Erich Hartmann, the most successful fighter pilot in history. Hartmann attributed his survival and success to acting swiftly based on partial information, exploiting fleeting opportunities before opponents could react. Conversely, pilots who hesitated, seeking perfect situational awareness, were often shot down before they could engage. Instead, he advised making rapid, imperfect decisions, and then adjusting based on new data. Snowden echoes this: in chaos, one must stabilise first, then sense, then respond. During the 2011 Fukushima disaster, some officials delayed decisive action due to uncertainty over reactor conditions. Meanwhile, the leaders who took swift, albeit imperfect, containment measures prevented far worse fallout.
Leaders in chaos must abandon perfectionism. The question is not, ‘What is the best option?’ but rather, ‘What is the least bad option that prevents collapse and keeps adaptation possible?’ The faster a leader internalises this shift, the better they navigate crisis.
The Action Imperitive
Finally, there is Act. But this is not the end of the process. The OODA Loop is a cycle—each action generates new observations, which refine orientation, leading to better decisions. The faster one can cycle through this process, the greater the control over the chaos. This is why agility—not strength—wins in turbulent environments.
Churchill’s wartime speeches were not just calls to arms; they were narrative interventions that shaped public perception and morale in times of extreme uncertainty. By framing the war as a battle between civilisation and barbarism, he gave people a sense of purpose and agency, transforming fear into determination. His ability to use rhetoric to craft a coherent, stabilising narrative allowed the British public to withstand immense hardship, demonstrating that effective leadership in chaos is as much about shaping the collective mindset as it is about strategic decision-making. His words structured chaos, giving people a coherent frame through which to act. Leaders who fail to impose meaning on chaotic situations leave their teams paralysed. Whether it is a fire chief issuing clear, simple commands in a burning building, or a CEO setting a stabilising course amidst economic freefall, the principle is the same: movement creates momentum, and momentum creates stability.
Contract Chaos to Complexity
The goal of OODA in chaos is not to impose total control—that is a fool’s errand. The objective is to create enough stability for patterns to emerge, so that the system moves from chaos into the realm of complexity, where more nuanced solutions can take hold. Snowden argues that leaders in chaos should not attempt to find answers but instead focus on establishing constraints that prevent further collapse.
In this sense, OODA is not a rigid doctrine but a rhythm—a way of moving through disorder with enough fluidity to maintain control. The organisations that survive chaos are not the strongest or the most knowledgeable; they are the ones that adapt fastest. A striking example is Netflix, which transitioned from a DVD rental service to a streaming giant, and later into original content production, continuously evolving with market demands. In contrast, Blockbuster, once the dominant force in video rentals, failed to adapt swiftly, leading to its decline. This illustrates how agility in decision-making and willingness to embrace new realities separate those who thrive from those who falter. And adaptation begins with action.
Stability Where None Exists
The final lesson of OODA is not about speed, but precision. Leaders in chaos do not simply move fast; they move intelligently. They do not wait for clarity, but they also do not act randomly. They cycle through observation, orientation, decision, and action at a pace that keeps them one step ahead of disintegration.
It is easy to look back on crises and assume the right course of action was obvious. It never is in the moment. The only leaders who create stability in chaos are those who recognise that certainty is a luxury, hesitation is a killer, and agility is survival. OODA is not just a decision-making tool; it is a way of thinking, seeing, and moving. In times of turbulence, it is not the conditions that determine who prevails, but the speed at which one learns to navigate them.
